The Newbie Forums
go_manly
January 25, 2010, 12:03 AM posted in General DiscussionChangye said I like to count, so here I go counting again.
I have counted the number of new members posting on the Newbie forums over the last 2 months (dating back to November 25).
To qualify for the count, the member must:
1. NOT claim to be UI or Advanced level;
2. Have made their very first post (anywhere on the site) on or after November 25;
3. Have made at least one post on the Newbie lesson forums;
4. Have made more than one post in total (anywhere on the site). [I am assuming that the majority of one-time posters have gone no further than Trial membership.];
5. Not look like spammers, make language exchange requests, etc.
The grand total of members who qualify: Two
And these two members have made exactly 2 posts each.
I'll let you draw your own conclusions.
The Count
cqwuxioalong
January 25, 2010, 12:33 AM看不明白到底想做是吗哦
go_manly
Mate, you've racked up 50 posts, and the first of them was one 1 day ago. What's the story?
go_manly
January 25, 2010, 01:23 AMMate, you've racked up 50 posts, and the first of them was one 1 day ago. What's the story?
go_manly
January 25, 2010, 06:24 AMTo give a comparison, I looked at all posts on Newbie forums for September and October (exactly the same length of time), and applied exactly the same rules for inclusion.
Result: 25 posters with a total of 110 posts.
Compare this to 2 posters with a total of 4 posts for the past two months.
hamshank
hmm...interesting..Perhaps the busy Christmas/new year period has something to do with it? Starting to learn a new language might be the last thing on a lot of peoples minds?!? *Speculation of course*
go_manly
My guess would be the lack of new Newbie lessons. I deliberately put the date of the last Newbie lesson in between my two samples.
sebire
Christmas and New Year has made a big difference to my posting frequency. Perhaps you should try comparing Jan/Feb 2010 to 2009.
henning
January 25, 2010, 06:30 AMgo_manly,
thanks for the counting.
But the result comes to me as no surprise as you joined two Newbie definitions with an AND clause:
- Newbie to the site
- Newbie Chinese level
ad 1) How many posts did you leave here in your first two months? AFAIR I didn't leave any. The usual first post here is: "Nice site guys".
ad 2) And after a few months dedicated newbies leave the Newbie level. Elementary comes fast.
So I wonder: what do the numbers look like if you relax the first condition?
go_manly
Henning
Just to elaborate on some of your points:
1. I did not insist that the posters be at a Newbie level. I included Newbie, Elementary and Intermediate students, excluding only UI and Advanced.
2. I am not measuring a poster's first 2 months on this site (I don't think I am able to determine when they joined), but the first 2 months after they started posting. As you say, most people don't post in the early days of their membership, so there is a lag effect, and the lack of new members posting now would indicate (to me anyway) a lack of new members signing up in the latter half of 2009. Either that, or all new members are somehow being deterred from posting.
3. I could be wrong, but I think most people who leave the Newbie level for Intermediate still look back at the new Newbie lessons (at least I did for a while). The fact that there are no more new Newbie lessons might therefore be the issue.
hamshank
January 25, 2010, 06:38 AMhmm...interesting..Perhaps the busy Christmas/new year period has something to do with it? Starting to learn a new language might be the last thing on a lot of peoples minds?!? *Speculation of course*
go_manly
January 25, 2010, 06:56 AMHenning
Just to elaborate on some of your points:
1. I did not insist that the posters be at a Newbie level. I included Newbie, Elementary and Intermediate students, excluding only UI and Advanced.
2. I am not measuring a poster's first 2 months on this site (I don't think I am able to determine when they joined), but the first 2 months after they started posting. As you say, most people don't post in the early days of their membership, so there is a lag effect, and the lack of new members posting now would indicate (to me anyway) a lack of new members signing up in the latter half of 2009. Either that, or all new members are somehow being deterred from posting.
3. I could be wrong, but I think most people who leave the Newbie level for Intermediate still look back at the new Newbie lessons (at least I did for a while). The fact that there are no more new Newbie lessons might therefore be the issue.
henning
January 25, 2010, 08:44 AMGo_ manly,
what question did you have in mind when you did your counting. Data without a clear question is usually rather hard to interpret.
go_manly
January 25, 2010, 09:02 AMI didn't really think of it as a question to be answered, but if I did:
"Has there been a reduction in the number of new members posting in the Newbie forums?"
pretzellogic
January 25, 2010, 12:28 AMdoesn't look like an increase since threaded comments were added, but it's still early. Obviously, with numbers that small, there isn't a lot that can be said either way.