The Newbie Forums

go_manly
January 25, 2010, 12:03 AM posted in General Discussion

Changye said I like to count, so here I go counting again.

I have counted the number of new members posting on the Newbie forums over the last 2 months (dating back to November 25).

 

To qualify for the count, the member must:

1. NOT claim to be UI or Advanced level;

2. Have made their very first post (anywhere on the site) on or after November 25;

3. Have made at least one post on the Newbie lesson forums;

4. Have made more than one post in total (anywhere on the site). [I am assuming that the majority of one-time posters have gone no further than Trial membership.];

5. Not look like spammers, make language exchange requests, etc.

 

The grand total of members who qualify:   Two

And these two members have made exactly 2 posts each.

 

I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

The Count

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pretzellogic
January 25, 2010, 12:28 AM

doesn't look like an increase since threaded comments were added, but it's still early.  Obviously, with numbers that small, there isn't a lot that can be said either way.

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cqwuxioalong
January 25, 2010, 12:33 AM

看不明白到底想做是吗哦

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go_manly

Mate, you've racked up 50 posts, and the first of them was one 1 day ago. What's the story?

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go_manly
January 25, 2010, 01:23 AM

Mate, you've racked up 50 posts, and the first of them was one 1 day ago. What's the story?

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go_manly
January 25, 2010, 06:24 AM

To give a comparison, I looked at all posts on Newbie forums for September and October (exactly the same length of time), and applied exactly the same rules for inclusion.

Result: 25 posters with a total of 110 posts.

Compare this to 2 posters with a total of 4 posts for the past two months.

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henning

Oh, that would be the answer to my question posed below

;)

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hamshank

hmm...interesting..Perhaps the busy Christmas/new year period has something to do with it? Starting to learn a new language might be the last thing on a lot of peoples minds?!? *Speculation of course*

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go_manly

My guess would be the lack of new Newbie lessons. I deliberately put the date of the last Newbie lesson in between my two samples.

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sebire

Christmas and New Year has made a big difference to my posting frequency. Perhaps you should try comparing Jan/Feb 2010 to 2009.

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henning
January 25, 2010, 06:30 AM

go_manly,
thanks for the counting.

But the result comes to me as no surprise as you joined two Newbie definitions with an AND clause:

  1. Newbie to the site
  2. Newbie Chinese level

ad 1) How many posts did you leave here in your first two months? AFAIR I didn't leave any. The usual first post here is: "Nice site guys".

ad 2) And after a few months dedicated newbies leave the Newbie level. Elementary comes fast.

So I wonder: what do the numbers look like if you relax the first condition?

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go_manly

Henning

Just to elaborate on some of your points:

1. I did not insist that the posters be at a Newbie level. I included Newbie, Elementary and Intermediate students, excluding only UI and Advanced.

2. I am not measuring a poster's first 2 months on this site (I don't think I am able to determine when they joined), but the first 2 months after they started posting. As you say, most people don't post in the early days of their membership, so there is a lag effect, and the lack of new members posting now would indicate (to me anyway) a lack of new members signing up in the latter half of 2009. Either that, or all new members are somehow being deterred from posting.

3. I could be wrong, but I think most people who leave the Newbie level for Intermediate still look back at the new Newbie lessons (at least I did for a while). The fact that there are no more new Newbie lessons might therefore be the issue.

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henning
January 25, 2010, 06:31 AM

Oh, that would be the answer to my question posed below

;)

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hamshank
January 25, 2010, 06:38 AM

hmm...interesting..Perhaps the busy Christmas/new year period has something to do with it? Starting to learn a new language might be the last thing on a lot of peoples minds?!? *Speculation of course*

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go_manly
January 25, 2010, 06:56 AM

Henning

Just to elaborate on some of your points:

1. I did not insist that the posters be at a Newbie level. I included Newbie, Elementary and Intermediate students, excluding only UI and Advanced.

2. I am not measuring a poster's first 2 months on this site (I don't think I am able to determine when they joined), but the first 2 months after they started posting. As you say, most people don't post in the early days of their membership, so there is a lag effect, and the lack of new members posting now would indicate (to me anyway) a lack of new members signing up in the latter half of 2009. Either that, or all new members are somehow being deterred from posting.

3. I could be wrong, but I think most people who leave the Newbie level for Intermediate still look back at the new Newbie lessons (at least I did for a while). The fact that there are no more new Newbie lessons might therefore be the issue.

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henning
January 25, 2010, 08:44 AM

Go_ manly,

what question did you have in mind when you did your counting. Data without a clear question is usually rather hard to interpret.

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go_manly
January 25, 2010, 09:02 AM

I didn't really think of it as a question to be answered, but if I did:

"Has there been a reduction in the number of new members posting in the Newbie forums?"