You have 7 years to learn Mandarin
boran
May 01, 2008, 01:42 PM posted in General DiscussionA recent article in Fortune Magazine talks about the rise of China as a economic superpower. I've always heard China would be the leading economy by the middle of this century, replacing the U.S., but this article predicts an even quicker time frame. That is, in 7 years (2015) China will be the largest economy in the world. However, this prediction is based on something other than the traditional approach of measuring each country's GDP.
You have 7 years to learn Mandarin
Essentially, it suggests that we are now entering an era where the country with the largest number of people will naturally be the largest economy. There's no mention of India in all of this which I believe should surpass China in population by 2030.
changye
May 05, 2008, 01:58 AM1) Advice to native English speakers, It might be a good idea to learn Chinese as your second or third language, but I still strongly recommend that you speak English, or employ a capable and reliable interpreter, when negotiating with your Chinese business partners. Chinese people are historically famous for being very tough negotiators, and negotiating in their own language would simply make your already disadvantageous situation worse, unless you can speak Mandarin as fluent as “大山”. 2) Advice to non-native English speakers, It might be a good idea to learn Chinese as your first foreign language, but I still strongly recommend that you master English first. No need to worry, in general young Chinese people study English more diligently than you study Chinese. Moreover, your English, even if it is clumsy, would get much more respect from Chinese people than your clumsy Chinese would. On the contrary, your excessively fluent Mandarin might perhaps, in a sense, put local people on alert.
phettu
May 01, 2008, 05:22 PMwell i dont know about the date, but the USA are truly worried that china is getting bigger than USA in the economic stakes, and Here in the UK, our economy is suffering (so they say) because of the lack of english people being able to speak chinese, as a huge amount of trade is with china now, its about time i think people started to prepare for a language shift if not a huge economical one as Brian just mentioned ....
boran
May 01, 2008, 11:43 PMIt will be interesting to see how much China will need to change to sustain such an economy. Traditionally, countries with healthy, sustainable economies have certain things in common: transparency, limited government interference in markets, protection of individual rights including intellectual property. With globalization, foreign investment and support is critical for any strong economy so the stability and reputation of a country's political and legal establishments are important. It will be interesting to see if China can continue its balance of communism and capitalism while maintaining its growth. Perhaps China's sheer size will allow it to change the rules on what constitutes a healthy economy.
wei1xiao4
May 02, 2008, 12:07 AMThis is really an interesting discussion especially in light of what is currently happening in China right now. Visas for French people are being denied because they have voiced disagreement with the Chinese, international businesses are being held back from visiting their plants because they can no longer get visas, expats in Beijing now have to check in with local police in a new ruling. It just goes to show you that in a communist country circumstances can change quickly with little recourse for the people or the investor. 北京欢迎您。
marchey
May 02, 2008, 06:25 AMThe problem with predictions -especially in newspapers and magazines- is that they are often based on someone extending with a pen and ruler the growth curve that has been realized in the past. Economic growth is a cyclic process. China has been on a spectacular growth path for many years now, partly justified by the huge pent-up demand. But even if the current economic cycle is exceptional, it does not mean that basic economic rules can be violated. Usually it is an external trigger that heralds the beginning of a new era. Often the underlying causes are shortages (of all kind) and over investment. Sorry to be so pessimistic, but my take on this is that after the Olympics takes away the enthusiasm of the Chinese people, the reality of high energy cost, scarcity of food at reasonable prices and unporductive investments will start kicking in. The Chinese economy will continue to grow, of course, but it will take many, many years, before they are up there with the rest of the Western world. My guess is that some regions and city may reach that goal very soon, but it is wrong to extrapolate that sort of developement to the entire country. As for learning Chinese, for me personally it is the key to understand Chinese culture and make friends in China. I gave myself 10 years to do it. Been at it 3,5 years...still 6,5 to go (at least) :-) Marc
rich
May 02, 2008, 08:53 AMI think I'll always be learning Chinese... need 100 more years to go through all the classical literature... ha ha.
kimiik
May 02, 2008, 09:14 AMWeixiao, "Visas for French people are being denied" ? Where does this wrong information come from ? I can assure you that this is not true (and next week I may post a proof here).
sebastian
May 02, 2008, 09:30 AMbbjt, one french business men (a french restaurant owner) was denied a visa extension in China. This is from an New York Times article: ... Although the majority of foreigners say they have seen no change in the behavior of their Chinese neighbors and co-workers, some French residents complain that nationalist ire is seeping into their daily lives. One businessman who plays tennis at a Chinese sports club said acquaintances refused to join him on the court last weekend. More ominously, the owner of a popular French restaurant here said he was denied a visa extension on Wednesday by an official who simply told him, “It’s because you’re French.” The man, who asked that his name and business not be printed for fear of antagonizing the authorities, said he was in a panic. “My whole life is here,” he said. ... Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/world/asia/24china.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
magnus1977
May 02, 2008, 09:31 AMBoron ... thanks for sharing. Missed this one...somehow. But thanks for sharing. I look forward to reading it this weekend. I think everyone in Chinesepod are smart because this will be the Language of the future. THanks to Chinese pod you guys have made the historically "mysterious" a bit more available for western people... There is still so much to China, regardless of the government and whether you agree or disagree with them. Whoever is in power, this country and her people hold so much potential. How fun to be able to talk with them in their native language. Thanks again Boron.
sebastian
May 01, 2008, 02:09 PMNot sure what to make of this article, but I am always cautious with authors who think they they need to make yet another prediction. Remember all those articles and books that predicted end of world scenarios for the Y2K problem?
boran
May 04, 2008, 06:53 AMWhile I think the title was meant as an exaggeration, how important will learning Chinese be when/if China becomes the leading economy? I realize that the dominant world language has changed throughout history but do you think Chinese will replace English as the must-know language in the world in the next 100 years? I have a hard time believing it will mostly because:
- The two most populous countries, India and China, are teaching English in schools as a second language. English is an official language of India.
- There is a large learning curve in reading/writing Chinese Hanzi.
- The Internet has spread English-based popular culture (music, movies, TV) around the globe. Technically, you can say the same for other languages but I don't think the global adoption rate is the same as it is for English.
sebastian
May 04, 2008, 07:02 AMI think Chinese might eventually become the most important business language in East Asia, but definitely not worldwide.
changye
May 04, 2008, 07:16 AMI remember, an American scholar wrote a book titled “Japan as No.1” a few decades ago. Can you believe that? So, I don’t usually believe those sorts of predictions. Anything can happen in this world.
pituitaryadenoma
May 04, 2008, 09:17 AMI think Chinese will be a lingua franca in East Asia and South East Asia, may be to the extend of Australia or New Zealand. But no way replacing English as a world language. I couldn't stress how difficult it is to write professional medical articles in 100% Chinese. Unless we introduce something like katakana or hangul, translation discrepancies will exist in Chinese forever, and this alone will be a big hindrance for it to become a world language.
nloric
May 04, 2008, 11:24 AMHi wei1xiao4, I used to live in Beijing 3 years ago, working for a technology company. Everybody, wether at the office or in the street, had a huge sympathy for me just because I was French. France was definitely all the rage back then, I wonder why. I'm astonished by how fast things have changed. Anyway, one should remember China is a quite nationalist country, albeit with politically orchestrated nationalism. Anti foreigners ire can flare up anytime, and just die down a few weeks later, especially when the Party is feeling "edgy" and needs a diversion... I'm coming to China this summer, and see wether things have settled.
suntzu8
May 04, 2008, 12:23 PMI am very happy that this topic came up! I am actually doing my Ph.D. dissertation on the topic of how China has managed to have economic growth despite lacking a Western style legal system. (There is a well known theory that states that economic growth requires secure property and contract rights - strongly related to Max Weber, Friedrich Hayek and more recent waves of Western neo-Liberalism). In a nutshell, my findings are that China has many other socio-political institutions that can provide the foundation upon which to build economic growth. (Not without some price and sacrifices, however the same would probably be true if it had a robust Western style legal system albeit different sacrifices). I was recently in Shanghai and Beijing lecturing on these topics at various law schools and research institutes. It was surprised to note that I was able to actually manage with my broken Mandarin in many situations, including the supermarket and other places where nobody spoke English. Chinesepod, with its very practical applications, really helped me out there! However, since my legal research is not directly related to Chinesepod's general theme of language, I don't want to spam any discussion forum about this topic. If anybody would like to discuss with me about it, please message me and we can exchange emails etc. I'm always looking for new thoughts and ideas! People here certainly seem to have lots of great comments on all topics! =)
changye
May 04, 2008, 01:16 PMI’ve read a lot of comments posted by Western posies complaining that young Chinese guys often speak to them in English on the street. Judging from this social phenomenon in China, Chinese people seem to put a great importance on English acquisition, and they are very enthusiastic and aggressive about speaking English with foreign people. As long as this trend continues, I believe so, I don’t think that you need to begin learning Mandarin so hastily. Don’t downplay Asian people’s craving, especially in China, Korea, and Japan, for “English” and Western culture. I am very sure that English will keep enjoying its status as the major international language in the future. I hesitate to say this, but I must thank French and South Korea, because owing to the two countries, the popularity of Japan in China (perpetually lowest in rank for MANY reasons) has been recently “slightly” improving, fortunately or unfortunately. It’s kind of weird seeing countries other than Japan being strongly denounced in China.
changye
May 04, 2008, 01:18 PMSorry, correction. ×）Western posies ○）Western poddies
wei1xiao4
May 02, 2008, 09:49 AMThanks bbjt. I hope you are correct. But here's where I got it from: "Although the majority of foreigners say they have seen no change in the behavior of their Chinese neighbors, and co-workers, some French residents complain that the nationalist ire is seeping into their daily lives. One businessman who plays tennis at a chinese sports club said acquaintances refused to join him on the court last weekend. More ominously, the owner of a popular French restaurant here said he was denied a visa extension on Wednesday by an official who simply told him, 'It's because you are French.' The man, who asked that his name and business not be printed for fear of antagonzing the authorities, said he was in a panic. 'My whole life is here,' he said." International Herald Tribune There's more to the story but you can look it up. This issue is from 4/24/08. But the article also says there have been protests at the French Embassy in Beijing and at Carrefour, so, no, I'm not making this up. There is definitely something out of the ordinary going on.
henning
May 01, 2008, 02:03 PMEconomies are growing together so quickly that I don't think by the mid of the century we will still talk about "economic superpowers" in a national sense. Economy is transnational by nature. And for the 2015 number...By 2015 a complete economic cycle has passed, so China will have hopefully recovered from the crisis that started summer 2008 and be right in middle the next boom phase... So I agree that by that time we should be fluent.